What are the chances of Kalonzo Musyoka being president in 2022?

Sometime ago, I came across an interesting discussion, at Kongowea market in Mombasa. It was as to whether former vice president and Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka has a realistic chance of winning the presidency in 2022. On one side of the debate were folks arguing that Steven Kalonzo Musyoka does indeed have a realistic chance of winning the presidency in 2022. And on the other side of the debate, there were folks arguing that Kalonzo’s best (political) days are behind him, and that he doesn’t really have a realistic chance of winning the Kenyan presidential seat during the 2022 general elections. I was intrigued by the debate.

It is important to appreciate that Kenyan voting patterns tend to be based on ethnic blocs. That may not be how it is supposed to be. But that is how things are, for the time being. Having appreciated this reality, it is important to also accept that, for the time being, Kalonzo Musyoka still appears to have one of the major voting blocs behind him – namely the Ukambani bloc. The Ukambani voting bloc has millions of votes – especially when you count both the votes of the folks who are living in Ukambani counties (Machakos, Kitui and Makueni) as well as the votes of the Kambas who are living elsewhere (in Nairobi, Mombasa, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Lamu, Kilifi) and elsewhere. One of the mistakes we make when counting Kamba votes is that of only concentrating on the Kamba voters who are registered within the three Ukambani counties of Kitui, Machakos and Makueni – while overlooking the Kamba voters who are registered elsewhere. Yet the number of Kambas who are outside Ukambani is almost as huge as the number of Kambas who are in Ukambani. All said and done, if Kenyans are to stick to their ethnic voting patterns, and Kalonzo Musyoka retains his sway over the Kamba voting bloc, then we can say that he does have a realistic chance of clinching the presidency. But that also depends on whom he forms an alliance with, and whether the elites, the so-called ‘system’ or ‘deep state’ accept him.

It has often been pointed out that if Kalonzo is to attain political success going forward, he does need to take firmer stands on issues. He also needs to be a bit more controversial, so that he can get more news coverage. There is a generation of Kenyans who were born/grew up long after the KANU era, when Kalonzo had a lot of sway in government (and when the Kalonzo style of politics was the in-thing). The only way in which these people can get to understand Kalonzo and bond with him is if he is in the news more. It is amazing how we can go for a whole week without seeing Kalonzo on TV. Yet the folks he is supposed to compete with in the 2022 general elections -- the likes of Dr William Ruto -- keep on being mentioned in every news bulletin. It is even more amazing how Kalonzo Musyoka manages to retain his position as one of Kenya’s political kingpins even in spite of him not getting as much news coverage. 

Kalonzo also needs to get rid of the perception that he is just a Kamba leader, and get himself to be viewed as more of a national leader. He needs to get pointmen in the various regions of Kenya, the way Ruto has managed to get pointmen in various parts of Kenya – including Johnson Muthama, Kalonzo’s erstwhile ally, who has over time grown to be viewed as Ruto’s pointman in Ukambani. If Ruto does have a pointman in Ukambani (Muthama Nduya) why doesn’t Kalonzo seem to have a pointman in the former Rift Valley region? And he does perhaps need to update his politics, to align them with the demands of the time. Today’s politics are driven by brief sound-bites (which get into the TV news slots), not long speeches. The folks around Kalonzo need to prepare him properly whenever he is going for meetings anywhere on what to say and how to say it, in order to get the necessary publicity. The people around Raila Odinga seem to do a very thorough job in this regard, and one wonders why the people around Kalonzo Musyoka let him to go to meetings without thorough preparations on sound-bites...